~ Where the Sun Will Never Set on Our liberty ~
10 reasons why I think shutting down the economy, businesses, and mass quarantines are not only unwarranted, but ultimately destructive:
1) The longer this goes on the more damage it does to our economy, possibly leading to a recession or a depression. The economy is our life-blood. If the economy collapses then the health system collapses, and more people will die.
2) It infringes on our Constitutional rights to freely assemble, and can easily be abused by the governing authorities to enact even more draconian and unconstitutional measures.
3) There is no guarantee the current approach of “shelter-in-place” and “social distancing” will completely halt the spread of the virus, and even if it does there is no guarantee the virus won't come back again next year. We can’t afford to repeat this process again. It is untenable, unsustainable, and ultimately damaging to the economy. This virus may be here to stay and we must learn to live with it like all the other myriad of viruses and diseases we already live with.
4) The current approach is unprecedented and the consequences are unknown. We didn't shut down the economy and quarantine the populace during the 2002 SARS outbreak, 2009 bird flu outbreak or the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak.
5) There are other alternatives. South Korea, among other Asian countries, are fighting the virus using widespread testing and quarantining only the sick, while keeping their society free and open. Why are we following the Chinese model and not the South Korean model?
6) Mortality rates don't give the complete picture. They are not static but can vary from one location to another, and are effected by contributing factors. Even the mortality rate of the common flu can be as high as 8% among certain demographics, such as in nursing homes.
7) We are not Italy nor Wuhan. China has wet markets (breeding grounds for viruses), heavy pollution, high population, and are heavy smokers, all of which contributed to their high mortality rate. Likewise, Italy has the second oldest population in the world, has socialized medicine, they greet each other with a kiss on the cheek, and have direct ties with China though the One Belt and One Road initiative.
8) It's an over-reaction. During the 2017-2018 flu season, the CDC stated that 80,000 died during the 2017/2018 US flu season. The economy was not shut down and nobody panicked.
9) So far it has not been worse than the flu. The typical flu season starts in October\November in North America. As of December 27th 2019, it was reported there were 2,100 deaths from the flu. The first case of CV-19 in the US was January 19th 2020, and as of March 21st there were 300 deaths from the CV-19 virus in the US. That means that 2,100 died from the flu versus 300 from CV-19 in roughly the same period of time.
10) It has a 97-98% survival rate and mostly affects the elderly who have underlying health issues. The latter group is already at high risk every flu season. Symptoms may vary from mild to severe to not showing any symptoms at all, again much like the flu.
The CV-19 outbreak onboard the Diamond Princess Cruise ship is for me the best example why I don’t think the CV-19 virus is anything extraordinary or something to worry about. The Diamond Princess was the ultimate petri dish. It was a closed environment in which all the passengers and crew were tested. The mortality rate was only 1%, and this with the majority of the passengers being 60 and over. There are two things we can gleam from this: 1) 1% is far less than the global mortality rate of 3.4%, and 2) it would have likely been even lower with a more diverse age group.