~ Where the Sun Will Never Set on Our liberty ~
Preface, I am not doctor or an expert in virology, but I do have a brain and I can read what the experts are saying and everything tells me the COVID-19 coronavirus is being blown way out of proportion. That doesn’t discount that people have died from it and that people shouldn’t take precautions, especially those who are sick and elderly. Practicing good hygiene and using common sense does go a long way. The most worrisome symptoms of COVID-19 to me are not runny nose, sore throat, cough or fever, but fear and paranoia. That in my opinion is more contagious than any virus and will make things worse than the actual virus.
I think having a little perspective is important. The flu, which is also a coronavirus, kills 646,000 people worldwide. The CDC estimates that 18,000 – 46,000 have died from the seasonal flu from October 1, 2019, through February 22, 2020, in the United States alone. Covid-19, on the other hand, has only killed 38 as of this writing. Those that have died are generally elderly or have weak immune systems. I don’t want to minimize those that have died already, and I’m sure more will die before this is all over. But until Covid-19 deaths start exceeding the seasonal flu there’s no need to panic (which we should never do anyway).
I keep hearing COVID-19 is not like the seasonal flu. Well, yes and no. They're not exactly the same, but they do have many similarities: They're both coronaviruses, they both produce the same symptoms, they're both transmitted the same, and the symptoms are treated the same. Where they differ is the Covid 19 virus "may" additionally spread through the airborne route, the incubation period is potentially longer in some individuals (though the mean period is still the same as the flu), and the mortality rate appears higher, although this number is highly variable. But in terms of raw numbers, far more people have died from the common flu than Covid 19 at this point. In fact, unless you've been to China recently, you're far more at risk at dying from the seasonal flu than the novel coronavirus.
The biggest issue is the mortality rate. The mortality rate of the flu in the United States is generally less than one percent, while the global COVID-19 mortality rate is 3.4%. A couple of things about that. First, COVID-19 has a higher death rate because it's a new strain and we have no vaccine for it (yet), unlike the seasonal flu. Second, the global mortality rate of COVID-19 is unreliable and highly variable based upon location. Let me explain.
The global mortality rate is 3.4% but this number has been skewed by the initial outbreak in Wuhan, China. It is expected to be higher in China because they have a higher population, more pollution, their hygiene is not as good, and they have open "wet" markets that are breeding and transmission grounds for viruses. But this isn’t the same mortality rate everywhere. In the rest of the industrialized world, it has been lower with the exception of Italy. However, Italy has the oldest population in Europe and the elderly are more susceptible to this particular virus.
The mortality rate will vary depending upon location, and that is true with any virus. Take the common seasonal flu, for example. In the United States, it may be less than 1% mortality but in Sub-Saharan Africa it can range from 2.8% to 16.5%, and 3.5% to 9.2% in Southeast Asia. Even with the COVID-19 virus, the mortality rate in other Chinese provinces was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC. There are many reasons for this including population density, the degree of sanitation and hygiene, and access to quality medical care, among others. This is why trying to compare the mortality rate of common flu in the United States to the Covid 19 worldwide mortality rate is like comparing apples and oranges. In the United States, there have been 1289 confirmed cases and 38 deaths due to COVID-19 out of a population of 327.2 million people. That makes the mortality rate of COVID-19 in the US comparable to the common flu.
Here’s the thing, we’ve had outbreaks and pandemics before. Just in modern times, we've had swine flu, Ebola, bird flu, Zika, Chikungunya (aka Dengue Fever), SARS, and MERS. The 2003 SARS outbreak also originated in China and spread throughout the world for six months. It didn't infect as many people but it had a higher mortality rate of 10%. We got through that, and we will get through this. I suspect as we get into the summer months the virus will taper off, even if it doesn't go away completely. The good news is the survival rate from COVID-19 is around 97-98%.
I agree with most of what you said, Watchman. But, I look at this virus from a very different angle! It's probably not bad for younger people and for those that have no underlying health issues at all.
I spoke with my neurologist about this virus yesterday and will speak with my husbands infectious doctor tomorrow. As you know my husband has Non-Hogkins Lymphoma cancer which means his immune system is compromised as that's where his cancer lives.
I will paste below what my neurologist told me yesterday in the office. Also, his infectious doctor just today told me he would call me to talk fully tomorrow but advised me today to keep Rick home and away from any people. I won't even be taking him for his appointment next week with the infectious doctor. It is just too dangerous for him and for me to even catch it because I will give it to Rick.
Both doctors said to take this seriously. Just wanted to let you know.
Here is the paste of what I was told yesterday.
Not to scare anyone and I am not panicking, BUT, I am very concerned, especially after my conversation with my neurologist this morning about this very issue. He spoke to me like a friend today. I told him that I was concerned about taking Rick to his monthly appointment with his infectious doctor. He sees this doctor as he is on a steady diet of antibiotics every day and has been for a long time. He told me that he would be concerned too and not to go unless we both wear masks as this virus would kill Rick. He also told me that they aren't telling the doctors everything and that this will get much worse. I am cancelling Ricks appointment with his infectious doctor for now and will only take him to his cancer doctor next month until we know more about what's going on.
Yes Robin. I can understand the situation with your husband and taking every precaution necessary.
Any Corona strain can and is detrimental to the elderly and to those with preexisting maladies, i.e., cancer of any magnitude or variety. Exercising the normal protocols regarding preventative procedures is always a necessity, always. You Robin should continue to use every prevent defense to keep your husband isolated as much as possible, you already know that.
By the same token, the onslaught of panic stricken media, and those who are of the insane belief that President Trump should have simply waved his Presidential magic wand and made this entire pandemic go away, are engaging in one single end goal. That is "get Trump!!!" It doesn't matter to the Chinese if they lose three million people, past Communist Chinese regimes have made that perfectly clear. History bears that out. When the population is over one billion, losing one percent to any virus, is not something they'll worry about, as long as it's instrumental in bringing about the downfall of America.
Here in the U.S. we have a radical Communist movement, that's extremely obvious. The current Communist/Socialist movement cannot succeed as long as President Trump is in office, hence the media and the never Trumper's never-ending attacks on our Republic. There is only one way for our American Socialists to succeed and that's destroy the system, and along with that overthrow the President at all costs. Understand, that to these radicals, America is already all wrong. Destroying the Republic is the goal, and they don't care how they do it, or who get's hurt in the process. Bringing down the U.S. economy is simply a means to an end. Make no mistake the hype behind the Covid19 Wuhan virus is also a means to their end. Communists will never allow a good crisis to go to waste. The push for globalism has been around for many decades, that's the reason all of America's medicine is in the hands of Communist China.
While we are preparing for the worst, the unforeseeable worst, we should not lose sight of what's happening politically in our country. Let's not get trapped into the notion that if our government controlled everything we'd be so much better off. That embrace of the Communist way will destroy America's freedom, liberty and Constitutional Republic in short order.
Perspective is in order these days, lose your perspective and lose your country. Radical Communists are not hating Donald Trump, they are hating all conservatives who voted for him. Communism is a war against the very people they promise to take care of.
Watchman, I agree with your estimation concerning the coronavirus. Panicking will help nothing.
This is worth watching:
Coronavirus Facts vs. Fiction Interview with Dr. Centeno - The Dan Bongino Show